WPI rises to 2.37% in Dec; all eyes on RBI's rate decision next month

New Delhi, PTI: Wholesale price inflation rose to 2.37% in December 2024, due to a spike in prices of non-food articles, manufactured items as well as fuel and power, even though food items saw marginal easing, government data released on Tuesday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 1.89% in November 2024. It was 0.86% in December 2023. In October it was 2.75 per cent. As per the data, inflation in food items eased marginally to 8.47 per cent in December 2024, as against 8.63% in November.

Cereals, pulses, and wheat saw an easing in inflation in December. However, inflation in vegetables continued to remain high at 28.65%, potatoes at 93.20%, and onions at 16.81% in December. Non-food articles, like oil seeds, saw a spike in inflation in December at 2.46%, as against a deflation of 0.98% in November. The fuel and power category witnessed a deflation of 3.79% in December, against a deflation of 5.83% in November. In manufactured items, inflation was 2.14%, against 2% in November.

ICRA Senior Economist Rahul Agrawal said the uptick in WPI was led by the fuel and power and primary non-food articles, which together accounted for as much as 42 basis points of the 48 basis points increase in the headline print between these months. Agrawal said global commodity prices have inched up in January 2025 so far vis-vis December 2024. The average price of the Indian basket of crude oil, in particular, has surged by 5.8% month-on-month during January 1-13, 2025, amid tighter US sanctions on Russian oil producers and ships. Additionally, the recent sharp depreciation in the USD/INR pair to above 86.5 from sub-85 in mid-December 2024, would also exert some upward pressure on the landed cost of imports.

"Overall, ICRA expects the headline WPI inflation to rise further to 3% in January 2025 (+0.3 per cent in January 2024), with the uptick in crude oil and commodity prices and the depreciation in the USD/INR pair pushing up the print, along with an unfavourable base," Agrawal said. ICRA expects the WPI to average at 2.5% in the current fiscal and 3-3.3% in FY26. Barclays in a research note said wholesale price inflation rose to 2.37% year on year in December from 1.9% in November owing to a low base. Sequentially, electricity WPI was up sharply and food prices declined.

Retail inflation data released on Monday showed that consumer price index (CPI) based inflation eased to 4-month low of 5.22% in December on easing food prices. The RBI's monetary policy committee will announce its interest rate decision on February 7. It is widely expected that the RBI, which eased liquidity in its last meeting in December by reducing the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points, will cut interest rates in 2025.