From Biden to Trump: A tale of two Presidencies

Joe Biden’s presidency concluded with a series of significant policy moves that aimed to cement his legacy. In his final days, Biden brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, extended deportation relief, commuted sentences for non-violent drug offenders, and imposed new sanctions on Russia. His farewell address warned of the dangers of an oligarchy and the rise of a tech-industrial complex. Despite his efforts, Biden’s term ended with a nation divided and his party in disarray. During Joe Biden’s presidency, India’s trade relations with the United States saw significant developments.

The two nations worked to resolve certain bilateral trade issues and explored ways to expand trade ties. They revived their bilateral Trade Policy Forum (TPF), with the 2021 TPF ministerial being the first held in four years. India also became a part of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), a US-led trade and economic initiative in the region. Bilateral trade between India and the US reached a record US$ 128.78 billion in FY23, with India having a trade surplus of US$ 28.30 billion. Major exports from India to the US included gems and jewellery, pharmaceutical products, light crude oil and petroleum, electrical and electronics goods, engineering products, and apparel.

On the other hand, India’s imports from the US included petroleum, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, coal, coke, and briquettes. The Biden administration also launched the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) in May 2022 to elevate and expand the strategic technology partnership and defence industrial cooperation between the two countries. This initiative aimed to deepen economic engagement and expand technology innovation between the US and India. Overall, Biden’s presidency saw a strengthening of trade relations between India and the US, with both countries working towards resolving trade issues and expanding their economic partnership. January 20, 2025 marks a new beginning for India’s trade relations under the Donald Trump’s regime. With Trump’s tough posturing on tariffs, taxes and deportation issues, it may not be a cakewalk for both countries. India needs to go beyond hugging diplomacy and get serious about extracting its pound of flesh on H1B visas, trade tariffs and defence deals. India needs to indulge in smart diplomacy.

A warm hug is good only for a photo op! A smart diplomatic manoeuvring can benefit both India and the US on a reciprocal basis. The world leaders are waiting with bated breath about the implementable actions of the new Don at the Oval Office.As Donald Trump assumes assume the presidency for a second term today, the political landscape is set for dramatic shifts. Trump’s return to the Oval Office marks the beginning of a new era characterised by his distinctive policies and leadership style. His previous tenure was marked by significant tax cuts, deregulation, and a strong stance on immigration. The upcoming term is expected to continue these themes, with potential new initiatives aimed at bolstering the economy and reshaping foreign policy particularly towards India. It is expected that the dynamics of US-India relations are poised for significant shifts. Trump’s administration is expected to continue its focus on “reciprocal tariffs,” which could lead to renewed trade frictions between the two nations.

During his previous term, Trump’s protectionist policies, such as heightened tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium, had a notable impact on bilateral trade. But India retains considerable economic leverage due to its large market size, strategic importance, and emerging role in global supply chains. The Trump administration’s transactional approach to foreign policy may present both challenges and opportunities for India. On one hand, there could be increased pressure on India to reduce tariffs on American goods. On the other hand, India’s strategic alignment with the US, particularly in countering China’s regional dominance, could strengthen bilateral ties.