Deep-dive on assembly results: Split Opposition takes beating

By wrapping up four of the five states that went to Assembly polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party has shown that its long tenure in power has not dimmed the party’s fighting fitness.

Hindutva, the party’s ideological plank, still carries robust appeal in large states in the Hindi heartland and the party is sure to deploy it in the hope of reaping dividends in the General Elections in 2024. Of the four states where it has captured power, Uttar Pradesh is the major trophy.

Despite having conceded nearly fifty seats to its major rival, the Samajwadi Party (SP), the BJP’s victory can be termed resounding what with the party having over 60 more seats than the simple majority mark.

The BJP must thank its stars that accusatory missiles that the opposition fired at it on covid mismanagement, unemployment, bloated bodies floating in Ganga, stray cattle menace, farmers’ agitation and mounting sugarcane arrears—proved ineffective at the hustings.

The Samajwadi Party will need to go for a deeper analysis as to where its calculations went wrong. Although its tally has gone up almost threefold, from 47 to 127, an effort to take on board the Congress and Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan’s young outfit could have helped Akhilesh Yadav challenge the Yogi-led BJP more effectively. In Uttarakhand, the BJP has returned to power albeit with a reduced margin while in Goa, it is within striking distance of power having won 20 of the total 40 seats.

The party is also set to sweep back to power in Manipur with a comfortable majority in the 60-member Assembly. Punjab, of course, is an altogether different story as the party was never a serious contender.

Emerging as a clear winner with a landslide majority in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party has begun to register itself as a serious national alternative outside the Union Territory of Delhi from where it began its innings. This could be termed a clear verdict by the electorate for clean governance after witnessing the infighting, leadership tussle and split in the ruling Congress.

The Congress should blame none other than itself for scoring a self-goal and letting a state slip through its grip by foisting a flamboyant cricketer over a weak leader in Punjab. The AAP was also helped by its good governance model and the no-nonsense image earned through its decade-long rule in Delhi.

Curiously, lying on top of the electoral debris in Punjab are Charanjit Singh Channi, Navjot Singh Sidhu, Capt. Amarinder Singh, and two Badals, Parkash and Sukhbir, all CM hopefuls. The BJP’s victory in Uttarakhand despite changing chief ministers thrice during the last five years, can only be attributed to the rival Congress’s lackadaisical campaign and the ageing and lacklustre leadership that showed no promise of efficient governance. The electorate has handed the BJP a sound mandate in Manipur and it can now ensure a more stable reign with Chief Minister Biren Singh taking solid command of the government.

The BJP’s sweep in four states can be easily attributed to the ‘there is no alternative’ (TINA) factor. The disunited opposition parties were unable to read the writing on the wall. The Congress’ abysmal show is proof enough that parties opposed to the BJP will now even miss the pivot around which they could unite. The rot in the grand old party is too deep for any cure and its cup of woes is brimming.

Can party bigwigs remain in denial mode and for how long is the question Congressmen need to ask themselves.

The Exit Polls for once, reflected the public mood accurately, unlike in the past when many a time, their calculations have gone far off the mark.