Cong vs JD(S): RS poll a pointer to 2023 scene

The Karnataka Assembly elections may be a full 11 months away but the battle to find favour with the 5 crore voters in the state has already begun if the just concluded Rajya Sabha polls are any indication.

While the result in three of the four seats was a foregone conclusion with the BJP sure to win two seats and the Congress one, it was the tenacious fight for the fourth seat which brought out the deep divisions in the Opposition camp and how the Congress and JD(S) tried to outmaneuver each other.

The only reason why the BJP’s third candidate, Lehar Singh managed to scrape through was the disunity in the opposition; till the day before polls, there was talk that the Congress would give in and support JD(S) candidate Kupendra Reddy to foil the BJP in its hunt for a third seat.

The fact that it did not happen points to the long-term strategy of the Congress to ‘demolish’ Deve Gowda’s party in its stronghold, Old Mysore. One just has to take a look at the 2018 Assembly poll results to realise why the Congress is desperate to beat the JD(S) in its bastion.

It was only in Bengaluru Urban (28 seats in total) and Hyderabad- Karnataka(40 seats) that the Congress managed to score better than the BJP while in Coastal Karnataka( 16 seats), Central Karnataka(26 seats) and Mumbai-Karnataka (44 seats), it was a saffron sweep all the way.

With no perceptible wave in favour of any party and the hijab row and Halal meat controversy deeply polarizing the state’s vote base, the region where the Congress can hope to score better than 2018 is Old Mysore where it won 20 seats but was far behind the JD(S) which romped home in 30.

Congress bigwigs like Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar know they have a bright chance of upstaging the JD(S) with Deve Gowda, now in his nineties, a shadow of his former self and son HD Kumaraswamy not able to wield the magical effect his father had on Vokkaliga voters.

Many stalwarts who had stood by the JD(S) through thick and thin have deserted it, the latest being the venerable Basavaraj Horatti. A good number of JD(S) legislators are expected to jump ship ahead of the 2023 polls. So Congress bigwigs wonder why they should strike a poll alliance with a party considered a sinking ship and allow it to breathe easy and dream of making the best of a stalemate if no party secures a majority in 2023?

If the Congress can up its seat tally from the 20 it won in 2018 in Old Mysore, to around 35 seats, and take its overall tally beyond 100, it would be within striking distance of power. The party can hope to win a few more seats in Bengaluru too considering the despicable state in which the city is.

The JD(S) knows it will be a fight to the finish in 2023 and Deve Gowda and his family are sure to up the ante linking their party’s fortunes to Vokkaliga pride so that they have enough seats to lord once more over the state’s destiny as kingmakers.