Can Sena weather this ‘Maha’ crisis?

When political strife strikes Maharashtra, the nation inevitably pauses to take note for this is no ordinary state-its capital is Mumbai, the bustling financial hub of the country and the mega city which houses the second largest Legislative Assembly.

That things were not looking rosy in the ruling Shiv Sena-led Maha Vikas Aghadi(MVA) in recent weeks was apparent going by the recent Upper House polls where cross-voting favoured the BJP which won five seats much to the dismay of the Sena leadership.

The Sena had other worries too with discontent simmering over the tieup with the Congress and NCP and workers in no mood to reconcile with a pact with parties with which they shared no ideological affinity.

The state is set to go to polls in two years from now and there are enough indications that many Sena legislators may find the going tough in constituencies with a strong Hindu vote base. The BJP has pounced on the opportunity and is reportedly propping up Eknath Shinde, the Sena’s senior leader who is leading a massive revolt with a huge chunk of Sena legislators who were first shifted to Surat in BJP-ruled Gujarat and then to Guwahati, again in BJP-ruled Assam.

With CM Uddhav Thackeray not quitting as yet saying he would prefer to confront the rebels and the numbers still looking hazy, one will have to wait for longer before the dust settles and the winner emerges.

Whoever may come to power, the fall of the MVA government, which seems all the more likely at this juncture, would be a big blow to opposition unity for this was a coalition which brought together disparate parties together with the avowed objective of foiling the BJP.

That the coalition did work quite successfully despite the occasional hiccup for more than two years, goes to prove that with far-sighted leaders and an all-inclusive common minimum programme, ideological differences can be shrugged off for the sake of the larger objective in mind.

But the fact that the MVA is now tottering shows that a lot more should have been done to firm up unity of the coalition partners which cannot be built up by solely harping on the communal agenda of right -wing outfits. The ongoing Presidential poll process too has drawn attention to the inability of the opposition to come up with a clear-cut, democratic and secular alternative to whatever the BJP and its allies have to offer.

Though a contest is on the cards for President, the fact that this a symbolic contest rather than a serious effort to take on the saffronists at every level, points to the sham that opposition unity has become. Maharashtra may see the BJP returning to power with the support of the Sena rebels or a dissolution of the state Assembly-or even Uddhav sticking on to power but the writing is clearly on the wall-any opposition front to take on the BJP which has the inherent advantage of a well-oiled party machinery and a clear cut strategy, will have to be formulated on the bedrock of a pragmatic and implementable political programme failing which it is likely to suffer the fate of fronts like the MVA.