Sena at the crossroads as Maha crisis reaches climax

Rajendra Menon

About three years ago in November, 2019, when long-time associates, the BJP and Shiv Sena failed to strike a pact for government formation in Maharashtra with the Sena insisting on the CM post, hardcore Hindutva loyalists wondered how these parties, which had been through the thick and thin of the Ayodhya movement and many a pro- Hindutva revivalist campaign, could spar on something like the CM’s post?

But as the saying goes, power corrupts and so the Sena broke away from the alliance to form a government with its avowed rivals-the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party(NCP), while the BJP watched in dismay from the sidelines wondering how despite being the largest party in the Assembly with 106 seats, it could be deprived of power.

There were many who wondered how parties with diverse ideologies which had been fighting each other for decades, could work together in a coalition? But NCP supremo Sharad Pawar’s sagacious approach and Uddhav Thackeray’s ‘brave it all’ attitude after taking over as the state’s 19th CM ensured that the Maha Vikas Aghadi(MVA), as the coalition came to be known, functioned albeit with the occasional hiccup for almost three years.

So what went wrong when the government was just months away from celebrating its third year in office and had come to be tom-tommed as a shining symbol of opposition unity and a model for parties keen on an anti-BJP alternative?

A trip back in history to the time when the Janata Party stormed to power trouncing the Indira Gandhi led Congress in 1977 and then fell apart and was ousted from power just 2-3 years later, is an apt example to show that putting together a coalition is one thing and setting aside differences and providing effective governance is another.

To decipher the Maha crisis, one also has to be aware of the decline of the Sena. Late Balasaheb Thackeray, its founder, was no ordinary leader-his magical influence on the Marathi voter and the adulation he won as a proponent of pro-Hindutva ideology earned him a place alongside leaders like Vajpayee and Advani.

After his death in 2012, the Sena legacy passed on to Uddhav who in the past decade, tried his best to fit into the shoes of his illustrious father. But he was no ‘tiger‘ of a leader who Shiv Sainiks, accustomed to the fiery speeches of his father, were looking forward to. Yet the serene and soft-spoken Uddhav kept the Sena fighting fit for years continuing the tie-up with the BJP as Balasaheb had done until the breakup happened in 2019.

If the Sena felt wary of the BJP’s designs, there were enough reasons for it: The BJP had after the passing away of the Sena founder, been sniping away at the Sena ranks knowing quite well that Uddhav was a mere shadow of his father and no mass leader who could mobilise thousands with his oratory and mercurial personality. So while the BJP’s fortunes spiraled over the years, the Sena’s plummeted with its seats in the Assembly and vote share falling with each election sending the alarm bells ringing in the party leadership.

The Sena, after snapping ties with the BJP, has been trying hard to safeguard its vote base among the Hindu population by harping on Maratha Manoos and Hindu revivalism. But the fact that it is in an alliance with parties which had opposed the Hindutva brigade all along, was something most Maharashtrians found hard to digest.

Attempts by the three parties to strike workable pacts in local elections did not go far and in the recent Council polls, the MVA had to eat humble pie with the BJP winning five of the ten seats while the NCP and Sena had to be content with just two each.

Eknath Shinde and the 40 Sena legislators who accompanied him to Guwahati know well that when the state goes to polls in 2024, it will be difficult for them to face the electorate under the umbrella of the Aghadi for at the ground level, there is no love lost between Sena, Congress and NCP workers.

Disparate ideologies and a past history of animosity are not easy to forgetsomething Congress and JD(S) workers who had to sweat it out in the Kumaraswamy coalition government in 2018-19 are acutely aware of.

Where does the Sena go from here? Shinde has taken away a huge chunk of party legislators but does he have the Sena rank and file behind him? Will it be easy for him to claim the Thackeray legacy after the bitter battle with Uddhav and his loyalists?

The Sena is all about the Thackerays like the JD(S) is built around Deve Gowda and his kin. Or will the two factions of the Sena patch up after Shinde ties up with the BJP to form the government and the MVA is given a quick burial?

As Maharashtra watched the battle unfolding in the Supreme Court even as Uddhav threw in the towel late Wednesday night quitting as CM, proponents of oppositi