Gujarat Prepares for Triangular Contest

Political activity is set to enter a feverish pace with the poll bugle being sounded by the Election Commission of India for the two-phase elections for the 182-seat Gujarat Assembly in December. The BJP has won the majority in the Assembly six times in a row since 1995 and has been in power except between 1995 and 1998 when Shankersinh Waghela led a revolt in the party, defected and formed a Government with the support of the Congress.

The state known for its bipolar polity—Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress—during recent decades is however witnessing the aggressive entry of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as a third serious contender for the seat of the power. It is trying to make a foray into the state flushed with enthusiasm after its recent victory in Punjab. Given its spirited campaign during the last one year, it appears the State is in for a triangular contest.

The Congress had put up a strong challenge last time when the party won 77 of the 182 seats while the ruling BJP could corner 99 seats. However, mid-term poaching and engineering of defections by the BJP brought down its legislative strength to 62 with most of the Congress MLAs who defected winning by-elections on the BJP tickets and returning to the Assembly as BJP MLAs. Being held against the backdrop of the Morbi bridge crash tragedy causing around 130 deaths, the opposition Congress is all likely to exploit the flawed governance as a major issue.

The latest Lokiniti-CSDS (Centre for Study of Developing Societies) survey has pointed out that debate on price rise and unemployment are expected to take centrestage in the electoral arena between the two major combatants, i.e., the BJP and the Congress. The survey points out that five years ago (i.e., during 2017 elections) only 15% had expressed concern about the price rise while it was mentioned as the major issue by 51% of the respondents during the latest survey conducted during October 10-25. Rise in caste-related discrimination, release of convicted rapists in the Bilkis Bano case and surprisingly, lumpy disease in cattle too have been engaging the attention of voters.

As is its wont, the AAP is out to woo the electorate with its freebies such as free power, free education and healthcare. Though the Morbi tragedy and recent liquor deaths (it is useful to be reminded that Gujarat is a dry state) cast shadow over the rampant administrative laxity, the Survey has shown more people to have reposed faith in improved efficiency of the official machinery.

The BJP will need to sidetrack the price rise and unemployment issues and will be majorly banking upon benefits accruing to the state owing to the double-engine government with the Centre and the State governments being run by the same party. Frequent replacement of chief minister twice (Anandiben Patel was replaced by Mr. Rupani who made an exit for Bhupinder Patil to take over) does not seem to have made much of a dent into the image of the BJP.

However, it remains to be seen whom the party would like to project as the chief ministerial face. The Congress response to campaigning by the BJP and the AAP seems to lack any distinctive sting so far. With Rahul Gandhi being on his 150-day Bharat Jodo Yatra, the party has not projected any campaign faces yet. Gujarat being the key state in the ruling BJP’s strategic vision, a keen contest for the state’s rein is all that can be predicted.