Tracking polls: An insight into how Karnataka votes

The first in a series of talks, The Election Outlook in Karnataka by James Manor, highlights the various elements of state politics and how they affect the voting pattern

NT Correspondent

Bengaluru: James Manor has been studying Karnataka’s politics and history for 50 years, and considers the state his second home, having previously taught at the Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bengaluru.

Now, a Professor of Commonwealth Studies in the School of Advanced Study at the University of London, he spoke on an online webinar conducted by the BIC as part of their Karnataka Votes 2023 series that hopes to give insights into which direction the next election might go.

“Since 1985 there have been seven elections and no party has been re-elected in Karnataka,” states Manor who cites the fact that Karnataka is a three-party state that stops anyone from getting a majority and makes the politics dependent on building coalitions.

“Congress’s votes are evenly distributed whereas the BJP is more popular with Lingayats in the north and western part of the state, whereas the Vokkaliga in the south favour JD(S). So, even if the Congress gets more votes, they don’t win as many seats as the rest,” points out Manor.

All parties in the state face factionalisation, with it still being unclear if DK Shivakumar’s leadership will impact Congress, and Bommai being perceived as a weak bystander after he replaced BS Yediyurappa. JD(S) had bigger problems with the centralisation of power in the hands of the Gowda family but with it being Deve Gowda’s last election, the emotional appeal might win him favour with the Vokkaligas over the Congress.

The impact AAP might have will be limited to the urban regions, Manor says as he points out, “Karnataka elections are usually decided by the rural maidan constituencies.” “During Siddaramaiah’s term, it was a known fact that the government took 10% of public works tenders as a commission but in Feb 2021, we found that the BJP under Bommai took 40% according to an open letter to the Centre. A High Court judge on Aug 22 stated that corruption is so rampant in the state that no file moves without bribe,” this Manor believes might affect the voters and he feels that BJP’s polarisation push might alienate many.

Other factors that may affect the election are the BJP’s access to more money than any of the other parties and the godly image of PM Narendra Modi that will come into play. “In 1985, after Congress swept the national election due to the sympathy Rajiv Gandhi had after Indira Gandhi was killed, a JD(S) leader remarked that if Congress wins, Rajiv won’t come to Bengaluru to become chief minister.

The Congress will do well to remember that while dealing with Modi’s campaign,” said Manor. The Karnataka BJP was a pioneer in Operation Kamala where they bought over MLAs from other parties to form governments, which they started in 2008 and with the latest attempt in 2019.

But this might come back to bite them, believes Manor who says, “This creates a rift between loyalists who have stuck with the party and the defectors who have come in to feel they deserve a reward, leading to infighting.”

With parties in Karnataka giving tickets to either crorepatis or rowdy-sheeters, one will have to wait and see if the Bharat Jodo Yatra does anything to rejuvenate the Congress’s image. But the known pattern has been that Karnataka often goes against the party in power at the Centre.