Survey foresees Cong crossing magic number

NT Correspondent

Bengaluru: A pre-poll survey has forecast that the Cong ress could win a simple majority in the Assembly elections due in late April and early May. The exercise carried out by the Hyderabad-based SAS group with IPSS team in the state found that the principal Opposition party could bag 108 to 114 seats.

The ruling BJP could see its seat tally slip to anywhere between 65 and 75 members. Meanwhile, the third-largest party JD(S) could end up sending 24 to 34 MLAs to the House. The Karnataka Assembly has 224 members, and 111 seats are required to form the government.

The opinion poll conducted between November 20 and January 15 in three phases found that Congress’ vote share would increase from 38.14 percent in the last Assembly elections (2018) to about 40 per cent in the upcoming polls, a 1.86 percent appreciation.

The saffron party on the other hand could suffer a 2.35 percent dip in its vote share, going from 36.35 percent to 34 percent. JD(S) is also pegged to lose 1.3 percent of its vote share and go from 18.3 percent to 17 percent. Independents and smaller parties could bag 6 per cent of the vote share, winning seven seats between them.

No takers for Shah in Old Mysuru?

According to the survey, the BJP is expected to fare poorly in Old Mysuru region, which sends 66 members to the Assembly. 

The ruling party is expected to win anywhere between 10-14 seats in the region, despite concerted BJP efforts led by Union Home Minister Amit Shah to woo the populous Vokkaliga community. It is also predicted that Congress may bag about 24 to 25 seats. JD(S) may send 21 or 22 members to the Assembly in its stronghold.

BJP playing catch-up in capital, north K’taka

Congress is expected to do well in Bengaluru city with 13-14 MLAs while BJP might manage nine or 10 seats out of a possible 28. The Belagavi region, also known as Kittur-Karnataka or Mumbai-Karnataka, which boasts 44 seats is also expected to throw up similar results. Congress is forecast to win 27 or 28 seats in the region while BJP might have to make do with 14 to 16.

Reddy playing spoilsport

In the Kalyana Karnataka region, which borders Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, former BJP leader Janardhana Reddy’s Kalyana Rajya Pragati Paksha (KRPP) is expected to be a deciding factor in nine to 11 seats. The BJP is likely to be negatively affected with 12 to 14 seats and Congress may walk away with 21 or 22 MLAs out of possible 40.

Saffron yield on coast

Coastal Karnataka on the other hand may zig while others zag. The BJP stronghold may yield the saffron party 12 to 13 seats out of 19 while Congress might have to be satisfied with seven to eight seats.