JD(S) weighing options for Lok Sabha polls

Maqsood Maniyar | NT

Bengaluru: Contrary to popular perception, JD(S) insiders have said that the party hasn’t taken any decision on how it will approach the Lok Sabha elections in May 2024. JD(S) national president HD Deve Gowda set tongues wagging on Tuesday when he declared there wasn’t a single party that hadn’t been associated with the BJP.

He had been answering a question about Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar calling a meeting of Opposition leaders, presumably to discuss a panIndia anti-BJP alliance. That is not to say that there is no Deve Gowda’s response held no political significance.

The next day former Jammu and Kashmir CM Farooq Abdullah called on Deve Gowda and his son HD Kumaraswamy to smooth things over. Deve Gowda had also been deliberate in defending Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnav in the wake of the Balasore train accident in Odisha that killed at least 288. Some speculated that Deve Gowda had rejected the Farooq’s overtures while others claimed JD(S) had requested the BJP for Lok Sabha constituencies in the Vokkaliga heartland such as Mandya, Hassan, Bengaluru Rural and Chikkaballapura, in a seat sharing arrangement.

Meanwhile, Kumaraswamy rubbished the rumours, claiming there was no plan to ally with the BJP. Perhaps, there is anxiety within the JD(S) since it registered its worst performance since its inception, tallying only 19 seats accompanied by a 13.3 per cent vote share in the recent Assembly polls.

Pie hard to split

The issue, however, is that unlike in other states, BJP, Congress and JD(S) compete for the same political space in Karnataka, especially in the Old Mysuru region. Moreover, voters prefer national parties in the Lok Sabha polls.

The CongressJD(S) pre-poll tie-up in 2019 proved fruitless as BJP won 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state, leaving the allies with one seat a piece. Coalition dharma ended up alienating the eventual independent MP from Mandya, Sumalatha Ambareesh, wife of late Congress leader Amabreesh. Not only did JD(S) candidate from Mandya, Nikhil Kumaraswamy lose badly, Sumalatha also cozied up to the BJP.

Case against alliance

Moreover, whenever BJP has entered an alliance, it has mostly been with a party with a greater presence in the relevant region. Seat sharing with a weaker ally when BJP is defending its 25 seat tally in Karnataka is also not an attractive prospect even in the backdrop of a thumping Congress victory in the Assembly polls.

JD(S) on the other hand has to answer to its support base, of which Vokkaligas and Muslims constitute the biggest. Both groups voted in great numbers for Congress in the recent provincial elections. The sustained attacks on the state’s largest religious minority under former chief minister Basavaraj Bommai in the form of campaigns against the hijab, halal meat, azaan and the attempted boycott of the community’s traders may have pushed Muslims to concentrate their vote with Congress.

Tie-up may upset support base

Notably, Muslims strategically voted for JD(S) in seats like Hassan and Channapatna to keep out the BJP. The fear is that if the regional outfit allies with BJP, it may lose its Muslim voters. The minority community had been miffed with Kumaraswamy in 2005 when he quit the Congressled coalition government and tied up with the BJP for his maiden CM term.

A JD(S) source said that if the regional party is wiped out in Old Mysuru, their support base may go over to the BJP. The irony is that the Deve Gowda-led party may try to survive by way of alliance with the saffron party.