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J-K: Terror still a threat

The Government of India had in an affidavit filed in the Supreme Court of India , said that since 2019, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has been witnessing an unprecedented era of peace, progress and prosperity after the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019.

The affidavit quoted some numbers to back this claim. A table showed the number of terrorist initiated instances had come down, from 228 in 2018 to 125 in 2022.

However, neither the source of data nor the definition of terrorist initiated instances was mentioned in the affidavit. There was no mention of the number of civilian or militant deaths in the affidavit.

Rather, data of organised stonethrowing incidents connected with terrorism-separatist agenda were cited. The affidavit also quoted the number of bandhs in support of the claim.

In just the first week of August, three militants and three security personnel had died in terrorism-related incidents.

In fact, data from South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), which sources fatalities data from credible news agencies and dailies, show that the number of militant deaths has remained high since the major inflection point in 2016 when Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani was killed.

Interestingly, India has informed the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) Counter Terrorism Committee (CTC) that there has been a steep rise in cross-border terror activities in Jammu & Kashmir since the end of 2021, around the time when severe financial strictures by global terror-financing watchdog, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), were eased on a troublesome jurisdiction.

The committee was informed that there were 600 terror camps across J&K in mid-2018, which came down to 150 in the middle of 2021; from 2021 to September 2022, the number of terror bases sharply increased to 225 Some time back, the FATF removed Pakistan from the grey list of countries under increased monitoring.

India informed the panel that terror activities had seen a slump from 2018 to the end of 2021, during which time Pakistan was placed on the grey list.

According to official statistics, during the attempts of infiltration from across the border from 2005 till 31st October, 2019, 1011 militants have been killed, 42 militants have been apprehended and 2253 militants have been pushed back/returned due to efficient vigil of security forces.

Though no official data is available for such incidents between November and December 2019, according to official sources, 19 terrorists were killed during the course of infiltration in 2020 and 12 in 2021. One terrorist was apprehended in 2021.

There were 77 infiltration attempts in 2021 and 99 in 2020. Meanwhile, according to the SATP database, a total of eight militants have been killed in J&K (including during infiltration) in 2023 (all data till March 26).

In both 2022 and 2021, 193 terrorists (including during infiltration) were killed. Of 193 terrorists killed in 2022, at least 56 were Pakistanis. Since 1988, a total of 23,918 terrorists (including during infiltration) have been killed in Jammu and Kashmir.

Simultaneously during this period, security forces have lost 6,636 personnel since 1988 According to the SATP database, terrorists targeted nonlocal labourers on at least 17 occasions in 2022, resulting in eight fatalities and 34 persons injured.

Since August 5, 2019, terrorists have targeted non-local labourers (from outside J&K) on at least 25 occasions killing 19 non-local workers and injuring another 37 (till December 31, 2022). One such incident, resulting in one injury, has already been recorded in 2023.

The government’s inability to hold Assembly Elections and restore statehood is providing opportunities to elements inimical to peace, to spread misinformation.

For instance, it has been widely propagated that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party at the Centre is delaying the elections till the time it feels certain of its victory.

This is again highly unlikely to happen anytime soon. Urgent steps are also required to be taken to address the security concerns of non-locals and minorities.